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About this game — what it is & where it appears

Probability Market-Taking: Optiver First-Round Interview Practice

Optiver's first-round interview tests fast probability and expected value: you see simple bets on coin flips, dice rolls and card draws with a quoted payout and decide whether the price is worth taking. This game drills that: back the lines that pay more than fair, size each stake, lock any arbitrage and skip the rest.

Every fair probability is exact, and after each board every line settles in front of you: what it paid, what was fair and what you should have staked. The Edge Score grades how you bet, not the bankroll, which swings with the draws. The full game is 3 untimed boards, the trader's questions and a 2-minute timed run; the free sample is the 3 boards and a 90-second timed run.

What is Optiver's first-round probability game?

It is a fast probability and expected-value exercise in Optiver's first interview round, used for both quant trader and quant researcher candidates. You see bets on coins, dice and cards with stated payout odds and decide which to take and how much to stake. It rewards correct pricing and sensible sizing, not the number of bets.

How do you decide whether a bet is +EV?

Work out the true chance of the event, then check whether the payout beats fair. A fair coin flip should pay 1 to 1, so 1.10 to 1 is worth taking and 0.90 to 1 is not. If a line is fair or worse, skip it.

How much should you stake on a +EV bet?

Bet more on bigger edges: aim for about 1.5 to 2 times the Kelly stake, since a short timed game rewards expected profit more than long-run growth, and never stake the whole bankroll on one line. This game also caps each line at 10% of your bankroll.

Is this practice game free?

You can play a free sample run with no signup: three untimed boards, then a 90-second timed run, scored out of 100. The full game, with the trader's questions and the 2-minute timed run, is part of QuantVault Pro. The odds change every run, so you can practise as many times as you want.