Dice games are how trading firms ask "can you price an option?" without saying the word option: compute a fair value under uncertainty, often with an embedded choice. Three structures cover most of what appears.
Structure 1: rerolls = embedded options
"Roll a die, take the value or reroll once" — fair value 4.25: keep 4/5/6 (average 5), reroll 1/2/3 for expected 3.5, so $\frac{1}{2}(5) + \frac{1}{2}(3.5) = 4.25$. With two rerolls: now your threshold rises (keep ≥5 first roll, since a roll is worth 4.25), giving $\frac{1}{3}(5.5) + \frac{2}{3}(4.25) \approx 4.67$. Each reroll is an option, and its value comes from optimal exercise — say those words and the interviewer hears a trader. Backward induction from the last roll is the universal method — the same logic as the optimal stopping family.
Structure 2: sums, records, and counting
Distribution questions — probability two dice sum to 7 (the most likely sum, 1/6), expected number of rolls to see all six faces (coupon collector: $6H_6 \approx 14.7$), expected maximum of $n$ rolls ($6 - \sum_{k=1}^{5}(k/6)^n$ — or for one die, the max-of-two shortcut $E[\max] = 161/36 \approx 4.47$). Clean setups, testing whether you reach for indicator variables and linearity of expectation before brute force.
Structure 3: adversarial dice
Non-transitive dice (A beats B beats C beats A) test the same lesson as Penney's game: pairwise comparisons don't order things. Betting games on dice outcomes fold in bet sizing and game theory — "I roll, you can bet on high/low at these odds" is a market-making round in miniature.
Practice with solutions
- Three-roll dice game — THE reroll classic, fully worked.
- Repeat-or-stop dice game — pricing with an indefinite option.
- D20 vs 3d6 — expectation and spread comparisons across dice structures.
- Dice with all pairwise sums — the combinatorial end of the family.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the fair value of 'roll a die, reroll once if you want'?
4.25. Keep 4, 5, or 6 (average 5, probability 1/2); otherwise reroll for expected 3.5. With two rerolls the threshold rises and the value is about 4.67 — each reroll is an embedded option priced by backward induction.
Why do trading firms ask dice game questions?
They are miniature option-pricing problems: compute fair value under uncertainty with an embedded choice, then often make a market on it. The reasoning — thresholds, backward induction, expected value — is daily trading logic.
What is the expected number of rolls to see all six faces?
The coupon-collector answer: 6 × (1 + 1/2 + ... + 1/6) = 14.7 rolls.
What are non-transitive dice?
Sets of dice where A beats B, B beats C, and C beats A in head-to-head rolls. They demonstrate that pairwise 'better than' need not be an ordering — the dice version of Penney's game.
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