Optiver "Likelihood List" — the exact 2026/27 test, free
One of the newer modules in the Optiver OA: each question presents a scenario — a data table, a chart, or pure reasoning — and three outcome statements you drag into order from most likely to least likely. This replica rebuilds all 15 reported questions with their original tables and charts.
Free, in-browser, no signup — opens the full assessment on its own page, exactly like the real screen.
What the real test looks like
You get one point only for the exact ordering — there is no partial credit — and the timer auto-submits your current arrangement at zero. Scenarios range from student-score tables and football results to density curves, scatter plots, a Markov chain on a directed graph, and fund-return histories.
Two famous items are in the full run: the basketball free-throw question, where the most attractive-sounding option is mathematically impossible (a 90% shooter with 100 shots taken cannot reach 95% after 200), and the directed-graph signal question, where the displayed order must be fully reversed once you work out the stationary distribution.
Scoring & strategy
Three reasoning tools cover most questions: subset logic (“wins by 3+” is a subset of “wins”, so it can never be more likely), impossibility checks (bounded denominators, finite ranges), and variance reasoning (for a fixed future date, the noisiest series is most likely to be on top; over long horizons the higher-mean series wins).
Rebuilt from 2026/27 candidate-reported assessments for practice. QuantVault is not affiliated with Optiver; formats rotate between cycles.
FAQ
What is the Optiver Likelihood List game?
A newer module of Optiver’s online assessment where each question gives a scenario plus three outcome statements, and you rank them from most to least likely by dragging. One point per exactly correct ordering, 90 seconds per question.
How do I get better at ranking outcomes?
Lean on subset logic (a stricter event can never beat its superset), check for impossible outcomes before estimating anything, and use variance reasoning for time-series questions — most reported items fall to one of those three tools.
Does partial ordering count?
No — the real game awards 1 point only when all three statements are in exactly the right order, and 0 otherwise, including skips and timeouts.
Is this practice test free?
Yes — the full 15-question run and the 2-question sample are free in the browser, no signup.